Even as most billionaires saw their wealth increase in 2009 along with rising stock markets, some remain cautious and believe that 2010 will continue to test the global economy.
We queried billionaires from around the world to get their thoughts on topics ranging from global warming and the weakening dollar to the price of gold and best places to invest in 2010. Ten answered our 10-question survey, but few agreed on most subjects. Whereas nearly all of the billionaires quizzed a year ago predicted an economic recovery, this year's participants were less unanimous.
The most bullish of the group predicted double-digit stock market gains in the coming year. Time Square tycoon Leon Charney predicted a 12% return in 2010. John Catsimatidis, another American who made a fortune largely in supermarkets and gas stations, concurs, stating that the market has to go up and will probably double over the next seven years. The biggest surprise of 2010? "The market hitting 12,000," Catsimatidis said.
Others thought the recent recovery would be short-lived and that returns would be minimal. Asked what direction his country's stock market would move and what returns he anticipated, Canadian David Cheriton quipped, "Sideways at best. So, none or slightly negative."
The billionaire respondents also gave wildly varying advice when asked about the best asset to own in 2010. All but one who abstained recommended a different investment. Among their picks: high-end art, real estate, distressed debt, cash, gold and stocks. Stanford professor Cheriton, who made his billions from a chunk of Google stock he'd been given by former students Sergey Brin and Larry Page, named the Internet company's stock as the best asset. The most practical advice came from Pharmaceutical tycoon Randal J. Kirk: "The best financial assets for a person to own would be those over which he has peculiar knowledge of expertise."
While most were gold bugs calling the commodity a buy or hold, two were vocal dissenters. Hollywood producer of such films as Pretty Woman and Marley and Me, Arnon Milchan called it a "place to go when you're scared; I don't see gold as a player in a healthy economy." Concurred Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, "Gold is a religion; it's not an asset class. It is always a bubble, so I am a sell."
The question that seemed to provoke the most detailed and impassioned responses was the one asking billionaires for their thoughts on the most alarming trend facing the economy today. Answers included rising unemployment, government spending, inflation and the poor education system. "I'm particularly alarmed by the decline in our commitment to a public education that will prepare our children to navigate a society defined by science and technology," says Kirk. Catsimatidis finds alarming the dearth of lending to small and medium-sized businesses with "great credit" a sentiment echoed by Cuban, who cited President Barack Obama's administration's ignorance of how entrepreneurs start small businesses.
As for the biggest surprises, both Charney and Cheriton predicted problems for President Obama. "Obama's approval rating will drop below the lowest level Bush ever had as unemployment continues to rise," said Cheriton. Perhaps a bigger surprise would be Obama's return to favor, but no one is predicting that outcome.
On a lighter note, Cuban is betting that the biggest shocker will be the news that Tiger Woods will remarry.
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Forbes: Billionaire Predictions 2010
Posted by Freddy at 12:10 AM 0 comments
Japan's 40 Richest According To Forbes
Japan slipped back into deflation in 2009 as the price of consumer goods slid, but a 31% stock market rebound meant ballooning fortunes for most of the country's wealthiest. Japan's 40 Richest are worth a combined $87 billion, up from $69.5 billion in February when we published the 2009 rankings. The first four tycoons accounted for two-thirds of that gain.
Topping the list for a second year was Tadashi Yanai, the retailer whose affordable Uniqlo clothing stores are drawing customers amid a belt-tightening recession. He added $3.1 billion to his fortune making him worth $9.2 billion.
But by far the biggest gainer is Nobutada Saji and his family. He is now worth $8.6 billion, more than double our previous valuation. The owner of closely held beverage maker Suntory is in talks to merge his business with bigger rival Kirin to create Asia's first drinks giant able to compete with Europe's Nestle, Anheuser-Busch InBev and SABMiller, and in the U.S., Coca-Cola. Analysts are predicting a generous deal for Saji that will value his firm at as much as 70% of Kirin's $16 billion market cap. It would make the Japanese beverage baron and his family the biggest shareholder in the merged company giving them enough voting rights to veto board decisions.
Though not as stellar as Saji's or even Yanai's rise, 24 others among the 40 wealthiest gained. Masayoshi Son owner of Japan's No. 3 mobile phone operator is up $1.7 billion. Hiroshi Mikitani, operator of Rakuten, the nation's biggest online shopping mall has $1.1 more than last year and mobile social gaming entrepreneur Yoshitaka Tanaka, nearly doubled his worth to $1.6 billion, which earns him bragging rights as Asia's youngest self-made billionaire.
Five out the top six added more than a billion dollars to their fortunes. As a result, a wealth gap between the bottom--Toyota honorary chairman Shoichiro Toyoda comes in at No. 40 with $620 million--and Yanai at the top widened.
But not everyone did well. One-fourth of the top 40 lost money in the past year. Hurt by a government crackdown on lending, consumer finance tycoons Hiroko Takei of Takefuji; Ryoichi Jinnai, founder of Promise; and Katsuhiro Kinoshita, owner of a big chunk of Acom, are all poorer. Hiroshi Yamauchi, the biggest shareholder in Nintendo, lost $700 million of his fortune as the Wii game console fad faded.
Dropping out of the rankings altogether were Tadahiro Yoshida, owner of leading zipper maker YKK, which is losing money, in part because of weakness in its construction materials division; Hirokazu Sugiura, founder of drugstore chain Sugi Pharmacy, down slightly on falling profits; and Toichi Takenaka, head of Japan's oldest construction company, which has been hit by slowing orders.
The three new entrants who replaced them include Keiichiro Takahara, founder of diaper and sanitary napkin maker Unicharm; Juichiro Takada, owner of seat belt and airbag supplier Takata; and Takao Yasuda operator of discount retail store chain Don Quijote.
Unlike our billionaires' rankings, which highlight individual fortunes, Japan's top 40 includes numerous family fortunes. The list was compiled using shareholder and financial information obtained from the families and individuals themselves, stock exchanges and analysts. Stock prices and exchange rates were locked in on Dec. 30, 2009. Private companies were valued based on comparisons with prevailing price-to-earnings or other financial ratios. Ages are as of Jan. 31.
Additional reporting by Shoko Tsuruga.
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